The first state in America has voted; Donald Trump has been dealt a shocking blow, losing to Ted Cruz from Canada and almost thrown behind Third Place Latino, Marco Rubio. This is certainly unexpected for Trump’s bombastic slogan, Make America Great Again. The foreigners appear to have taken the first round.
What went wrong for Donald Trump? He was leading in all ten of the most recent pre-election polls, even the best statistician in the US, Nate Silver, had awarded him 48% to 58% chance of victory. A win in Iowa was in the bag, and then after that New Hampshire, South Carolina, and every other state.
But Trump was undone by a blonde woman, and her name was not Hillary Clinton.
It was Megyn Kelly.
After a year of dominating all the polls, Donald Trump had gotten used to a certain amount of “immunity”. He did not suffer after his verbal attacks on Mexicans, women, Muslims, Fox News, John McCain or anybody else. In fact, every outrageous tweet by the Donald improved his standing in the polls, as his supporters appreciated a man who spoke anything on his mind, even if it was not politically correct. But then Trump made the biggest mistake of them all.
He moved beyond talking shit, to doing shit.
Donald Trump skipped the final Republican debate before the Iowa primary, after getting into a feud with Fox’s blonde moderator, Megyn Kelly, whom Trump claimed had “blood coming out of her wherever.” This remark, did no damage whatsoever to Trump’s reputation. But, skipping the debate – it costed the entire state.
You see, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio won that trump-missing debate.
And after that, Ted Cruz, Canadian born, hated by all Republicans, too extreme for the Tea Party, disliked by even John McCain, the Cruz who was a “sinking ship”, he won instead. And Marco “I don’t know how to win a state” Rubio doubled his standing in the polls.
Donald Trump has shown that you can say whatever you want, and nothing will happen, because these are Republicans, and Republicans are always talking shit anyway. But you cannot do whatever you want, because action speaks louder than words, and voters will indeed punish you for it. Even if those voters are stupid. Even if those voters are Republican.
Long term, Donald Trump is still the favorite to win the nomination, as he has polling leads in New Hampshire and every single state after that. But for the first time, he has to be careful. Because he’s no longer the Invincible Man. He’s mortal now, and someone else may actually win this thing.
In fact, Hillary Clinton may not be the Democratic nominee either. She got stuck in a traffic jam against a 73-year old Socialist Jew, proving that despite Clinton’s famous meticulous planning, things never quite go her way. (The last time, it was an uppity Black community organizer.) So President Sanders may indeed happen. Stay tuned.